Whether Greece defaults or writes down debt, the difference is in to whom the loss gets transferred. The established order as I understand prefers the debt write down. The real meaning of a Greek default is that it would weaken the control the established order has over the world financial arena. A change in the world’s economic order could effect financial markets more longer term. I am guessing a default would be bearish and a write down would be bullish. The battle is over transfering the loss and what group bears the burden.
Every financial crisis the world has ever known has resulted in political activity being initiated with the goal of managing and passing losses. The burden is lightened on those with political clout and transferred to parties with little or no political clout. This is what happened in 2008 in the US. This is what is happening in Europe today. The European rank and file don’t mind just as the American public didn’t mind in 2008. People are hard wired to take on the role of whipping boys to absorb punishment that their betters would otherwise be subject too. All people need is an explanation and they are happy with it. And, one explanation is really just as good as another.