How to Predict the Future

It is much easier to successfully predict something is going to happen than it is to come anywhere close in predicting when it will happen.  I have been forecasting the complete collapse of the United States economy for a while. The Great Recession of 2008, as it is called, never really ended. What we have have been calling a recovery is about the same as a man losing his job then borrowing enough money to continue his life style for a few more years. It is really hard to figure out how long it will take lenders to stop loaning him money. But, you can count on that happening.

The only difficulty in predicting the future is the necessity of discarding the belief in comforting lies. Once the comforting lies are gone so is the happiness which came from believing them. A fantasy free life is not for everyone. It is such a high state of sobriety that it can be unpleasant. I explain it but don’t automatically recommend it.

What is it every human on earth is avoiding that is so bad they engage in fantasy so as to escape? There are questions that have no answers. There are things we must do that we would rather not think of ourselves as doing.

We know we are alive but we don’t know what life is. We don’t know what we are or why we are here. Some talk of the gift of life. Is life a gift or is it a forced obligation? What happens to us when we die? Then there is the process of survival.

Notice that the earth operates as a big game of dominance and subservience. Living things live by killing and consuming other living things. The species at the top is the one that best dominates all of the others. Where does leadership come from within a species? Leadership goes to the most dominant animal within the species. The President of the United States, is the most dominant person in the country, possibly in the world.

Our situation is harsh. It is so harsh that fantasy is necessary for survival. A better word for political science would be herd dynamics. A better name for economics would be the study of survival. To predict the future all you need to know is what people are running from and how much fantasy they are indulging in. Then all you have to do is use the gift nature has provided.

Nature provides a way to read the present. Is there danger? Are there opportunities?  A person’s read of the present is extremely accurate provided the mind is free of fantasy and euphemisms. The present moment and how to survive might be as close to reality as we are likely to get. Fantasy is a prism through which the world is viewed. So, to to predict the future just be fantasy free and you accurately assess what behavior leads to what outcome. It works as well on a national level as it does on an individual number. Anybody can do it. The hard part is being fantasy free. Until you get used to it it is like being on a starvation diet or going through withdrawal symptoms.

 

 

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About Fantasy Free Economics

James Quillian independent scholar,free market economist,and teacher of natural law. Who is James Quillian? Certainly I am nobody special, Just a tireless academic and deep thinker. Besides that, I have broken the code with respect to economics and political science. Credentials? Nothing you would be impressed with. I am not a household name. It is hard to become famous writing that virtually no one in the country is genuinely not in touch with reality. But, if I did not do that, there would be no point in my broking the broken the code. If you read the blog, it is easy to see that there are just a few charts, no math and no quantitative analysis. That is not by accident. Given what I know, those items are completely useless. I do turn out to be highly adept at applying natural law. Natural law has predominance over any principles the social science comes up. By virtue of understanding natural law, I can debunk, in just a few sentences , any theory that calls for intervention by a government. My taking the time to understand the ins and outs of Keynes General Theory is about like expecting a chemistry student to completely grasp all that the alchemists of the middle ages thought they understood in efforts to turn base metals into goal. Keynesian theory clearly calls for complete objectivity. Government can only make political decisions. Keynesian techniques call for economic decisions. So, why go any further with that? Fantasy Free Economics is in a sense a lot like technical analysis. Technical analysis began with the premise that it was impossible to gain enough information studying fundamentals to gain a trading advantage. Study the behavior of investors instead. Unlike technical analysis, I don't use technical charts. What I understand are the incentives of different people and entities active in the economics arena. For example, there is no such thing as an incentive to serve with life in the aggregate. In the aggregate, only self interest applies. It is routinely assumed otherwise. That is highly unappealing. But, I am sorry. That is the way it is. I can accept that because I am genuinely in touch with reality. Step one in using Fantasy Free Economics is for me to understand just how little I really know. A highly credentialed economist may know 100 times what I do based on the standard dogma. Compare the knowledge each of us has compared to all there is to know and we both look like we know nothing at all. There is always more than we don't know than what we do know. I am humble enough to present myself on that basis. Why? That is the way it is. I am not bad at math. I have taught math. What I understand is when to use it and when to rely on something else. Math is useless in natural law so I don't use it. While others look at numbers, I am busy understanding the forces in nature that makes their numbers what they are. That gives me a clear advantage.