Stock Market Certainties for 2018

Look at the global scene and the valuations of all asset classes. The free market system has been dismantled. The success of the economy depends upon the degree to which asset values increase. It really works the other way around and will eventually. Only a small percent of the world’s population has benefited from the economic recovery. So, of course the stock market should collapse. Should is not certainty. Should is based on what we can see. What we can’t see are the ongoing efforts to prevent what seems natural from taking place.

Here is the certainty. All of the world’s resources will be focused on saving asset values, especially stock prices.  All of the world’s resources have been devoted to increasing asset prices for decades. The process by which all of this works will not come to an easy end. It is way too profitable for that to happen. Who has money? Who is rich and powerful enough to dictate government power?

Suppose 2018 starts with a sell off similar to the one which occurred in 2015. The odds of that are really good. There is clearly some supply hanging over the market. Who doubts that it will be managed as best as possible with organized support? We have forced uptrends. Controlled corrections are part of the package also.

So, what happens if the supply hitting the market is too overwhelming? An emergency will be announced. Citizens will be asked to absorb any huge losses occurring. To “save the world” central banks will sop up all of the supply hitting the market. All of the world’s energy will focus on restarting forced up trends in stocks.

 

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About Fantasy Free Economics

James Quillian independent scholar,free market economist,and teacher of natural law. Who is James Quillian? Certainly I am nobody special, Just a tireless academic and deep thinker. Besides that, I have broken the code with respect to economics and political science. Credentials? Nothing you would be impressed with. I am not a household name. It is hard to become famous writing that virtually no one in the country is genuinely not in touch with reality. But, if I did not do that, there would be no point in my broking the broken the code. If you read the blog, it is easy to see that there are just a few charts, no math and no quantitative analysis. That is not by accident. Given what I know, those items are completely useless. I do turn out to be highly adept at applying natural law. Natural law has predominance over any principles the social science comes up. By virtue of understanding natural law, I can debunk, in just a few sentences , any theory that calls for intervention by a government. My taking the time to understand the ins and outs of Keynes General Theory is about like expecting a chemistry student to completely grasp all that the alchemists of the middle ages thought they understood in efforts to turn base metals into goal. Keynesian theory clearly calls for complete objectivity. Government can only make political decisions. Keynesian techniques call for economic decisions. So, why go any further with that? Fantasy Free Economics is in a sense a lot like technical analysis. Technical analysis began with the premise that it was impossible to gain enough information studying fundamentals to gain a trading advantage. Study the behavior of investors instead. Unlike technical analysis, I don't use technical charts. What I understand are the incentives of different people and entities active in the economics arena. For example, there is no such thing as an incentive to serve with life in the aggregate. In the aggregate, only self interest applies. It is routinely assumed otherwise. That is highly unappealing. But, I am sorry. That is the way it is. I can accept that because I am genuinely in touch with reality. Step one in using Fantasy Free Economics is for me to understand just how little I really know. A highly credentialed economist may know 100 times what I do based on the standard dogma. Compare the knowledge each of us has compared to all there is to know and we both look like we know nothing at all. There is always more than we don't know than what we do know. I am humble enough to present myself on that basis. Why? That is the way it is. I am not bad at math. I have taught math. What I understand is when to use it and when to rely on something else. Math is useless in natural law so I don't use it. While others look at numbers, I am busy understanding the forces in nature that makes their numbers what they are. That gives me a clear advantage.