Stock Market Heads Up

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032315s&pSomething changed today. The news media ran some stories that focused on underlying weakness in the economy and the stock market. The media doesn’t normally report news that might cause investors to sell stocks or position themselves for a general economic downturn.

Informing the public is an old world function of the news media. Modern news organizations are now behavior and opinion management services. Cooperation with government is at an apex. There is one circumstance under which important news is actually reported and reported actually. That is if the news is on the verge of becoming apparent from an uncontrollable source.  Major news organizations cannot afford to appear unaware or uninformed.

The long awaited collapse of the economy and the stock market may be at hand.

Notice the intermediate uptrend circled in red. Do not be lulled into believing this rally has been fueled by Americans investing money. It has all been caused by algorithms drawing in short sellers and running the stops and the Fed trying to guarantee the profitability of buybacks with a wink and a nod.  The news media participates by reporting only upbeat financial stories. The Fed also gives advance information to institutions which help elevate asset prices.

As nice as the rally looks on a chart, it has not been good enough. The public has not been drawn in and neither have honest institutions. Back in the fall, I forecast a dip in early 2106 during which the appearance would be that a bear market had started. The elite would try to draw in as many short sellers as possible to use as fuel to launch a new up leg. My take is that all efforts were not good enough and now stock are ready to collapse. All the kings horses and all of the kings men can no longer save the stock market.

When a fascist system collapses the damage is staggering. Every American is in danger of losing everything he owns.

As to my stock positions, I have added a few shorts in companies with huge debt to equity ratios and have closed out no bear etfs. Of course I don’t place stops. There is no way to  profit from short sales in a rigged market if stop orders are used.

 

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About Fantasy Free Economics

James Quillian independent scholar,free market economist,and teacher of natural law. Who is James Quillian? Certainly I am nobody special, Just a tireless academic and deep thinker. Besides that, I have broken the code with respect to economics and political science. Credentials? Nothing you would be impressed with. I am not a household name. It is hard to become famous writing that virtually no one in the country is genuinely not in touch with reality. But, if I did not do that, there would be no point in my broking the broken the code. If you read the blog, it is easy to see that there are just a few charts, no math and no quantitative analysis. That is not by accident. Given what I know, those items are completely useless. I do turn out to be highly adept at applying natural law. Natural law has predominance over any principles the social science comes up. By virtue of understanding natural law, I can debunk, in just a few sentences , any theory that calls for intervention by a government. My taking the time to understand the ins and outs of Keynes General Theory is about like expecting a chemistry student to completely grasp all that the alchemists of the middle ages thought they understood in efforts to turn base metals into goal. Keynesian theory clearly calls for complete objectivity. Government can only make political decisions. Keynesian techniques call for economic decisions. So, why go any further with that? Fantasy Free Economics is in a sense a lot like technical analysis. Technical analysis began with the premise that it was impossible to gain enough information studying fundamentals to gain a trading advantage. Study the behavior of investors instead. Unlike technical analysis, I don't use technical charts. What I understand are the incentives of different people and entities active in the economics arena. For example, there is no such thing as an incentive to serve with life in the aggregate. In the aggregate, only self interest applies. It is routinely assumed otherwise. That is highly unappealing. But, I am sorry. That is the way it is. I can accept that because I am genuinely in touch with reality. Step one in using Fantasy Free Economics is for me to understand just how little I really know. A highly credentialed economist may know 100 times what I do based on the standard dogma. Compare the knowledge each of us has compared to all there is to know and we both look like we know nothing at all. There is always more than we don't know than what we do know. I am humble enough to present myself on that basis. Why? That is the way it is. I am not bad at math. I have taught math. What I understand is when to use it and when to rely on something else. Math is useless in natural law so I don't use it. While others look at numbers, I am busy understanding the forces in nature that makes their numbers what they are. That gives me a clear advantage.

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