Government in the U.S. explained according to the Pollyanna middle school model, is a democracy. Government for the people, by the people is how our system of government was defined.
The belief system of every American rests on a pile of euphemisms so as to make existence palatable. On an intellectual level people profess all of the attributes that make them wonderful and in control. On a deeper instinctive level people ascribe supernatural powers to government.
Government is seen as having the means to create jobs and cause economic growth. It can’t, but people are haplessly prone to expect it to.
Government does what government has done for over 50,000 years. It uses ordinary people as tools for helping leaders accomplish their own personal goals. Since Americans feel euphemistically special within themselves and worship leaders instead of guide them, that task is easy.
This mentality goes a long way towards creating the crisis period the United States is now entering. Government initiatives such as deficit spending and QE’s, fail at their intended objective of causing growth while automatically allocating resources in the least efficient way. This guarantees an eventual depression.
Popular expectations may be that with crisis people will wake up and do things right. Don’t anticipate that happening. When threatened, animals move to the center of the herd for protection. Human beings define themselves as being autonomous and independent. They profess courage and repeat patriotic mantras but it is all noise. When the crisis intensifies, citizens will demand more government, and not less. They will be overwhelmed by their herd instinct and try to barter freedom for comfort. Of course Americans deny being herd animals, but they are. Expect herd behavior and you will never be wrong.
Tag Archives: economics bernanke depression
Predator Elitists
By popular definition a president, senator, or representative is a public spirited person, drawn to public service out of goodness and a sense of duty. By popular definition a constituent is an independent minded individual trying to do what is right in a democratic society.
Both definitions are wrong in terms of what actually happens in the United State’s political and economic spheres. Leaders emerge out of a small group of born predator elitists who view the world in the terms of their own interests, and feign public service. The predator elitists become national leaders. They are personable and charismatic. They have an unquenchable thirst for power and use any position they acquire to further their personal ambitions. To do this, they have to convince voters that they are devoid of self interests. Every predator elitist does not go into public life. Some go into business and figure out how to use government to rig the market they operate in.
Constituents are in fact not independent minded. All but a few make group decisions and interact with government as if government were a parent. This is all while professing to be just the opposite of what they are. Constituents want to be taken care of. They see they treat their elected leaders as caretakers. Professed conservatives look to government to rig economics and business in their favor. Liberals look to government to create social justice and to provide for them economically,
This is not a new situation. This is the order which has existed for all of recorded history. It is a natural human tendency for the general population to make themselves available to be exploited. It is also natural for leaders to take the population up on their offer and exploit them endlessly.
Sometimes predator elitists overdo it. The quest for power causes those in charge to milk the population for more than it is worth. A revolution takes place. New leaders take over and the process starts all over again.
In the United States today, we are in the early stages or a breakdown in the economical and political orders.



Uncertainty and Free Markets
When there is a draught there is no little harm done by paying a medicine man to do a rain dance. As it turns out the weather is unmanageable but people might feel better for having tried to do something. Efforts to manage the economy are not at all benign. Can the economy be managed? Of course not, but still the efforts to do so are monumental. A free market economy cannot be enhanced by anything government does, other than removing itself as a source of problems. Notice that every effort to improve the economy requires removing one or more necessary characteristics of a free market.
In a true free market economy an uncertain outcome is the norm. Efforts to reduce uncertainty backfire 100% of the time. Try to reduce uncertainty and the result is poverty. Politicians can only be elected by promising to do what can’t be done. One of those things that can’t be done is to reduce uncertainty.

Government’s Perfect Record
Ben Bernanke is expected to announce some new magic on Friday geared toward saving the economy and of course supporting the stock market. So far, every economic plan in history has hacked away at various pillars of free enterprise. Is it any surprise that not one plan has worked? I suppose Americans will believe in these schemes a long as they can afford to.
During the Roosevelt administration, government started intervening in private markets in a big way and has not stopped. So far, government has a perfect record of wrecking every market where there has been intervention. The most recent market to be destroyed is the housing market. The health care market is currently being wrecked.
Early in this 21st century efforts began to make sure that investors never again lose money in the stock market. The result is that world capital markets are hopelessly corrupt. In just a little time financial markets around the world are going to fall apart in such severe ways that no one on earth will escape the suffering.
How do I know this? I am just counting on government to maintain their perfect record of destroying every market they touch.
The Coming Depression, Who To Blame
A lot of the tragic unemployment and other economic stress that we have today can be traced back to the spring and summer of 2006 when the book smart genius Ben Bernanke had just taken the helm as Federal Reserve Chairman and Henry Paulson who is arguably the best salesman in the world took over as Treasury Secretary. Together these two brilliant minds engineered a scheme to drive asset prices, mostly stocks, higher. The thinking was that the resulting wealth effect would keep GDP moving higher until other economic forces took over and the economy moved ahead on its own. Of course it was also reasoned that that rising stock prices would generate enough demand in the housing market to keep that bubble from busting.
By the summer of 2008 it was becoming apparent that two years of goosing asset prices had produced a house of cards that was going to crumble regardless of what these wise guys came up with. The Bailout of 2008 was introduced as if it was a brilliant heroic plan to save the world from an accidental set of circumstances that were threatening human kind. The Bailout of 2008 was more than anything a face saving maneuver. The people, who were seen as saviors, should have been walking across our television screens in handcuffs. In terms of misallocated resources and shifted economic burdens the costs of TARP is almost unfathomable.
It seems only the most brilliant minds have the confidence to attempt to do what the rest of us accept as impossible. In my mind, plans to steer the economy forward by dismantling our free market system are always going to end with a tragedy. The public will probably never know just how badly they were screwed by the economic solutions that were introduced in 2008. It is the nature of economics that the most severe consequences of are not likely to be traced back to actual causes.
Curbside Jimmy’s Hobo Experience
Cause Of The Recession
What is the cause of the recession? What is the cause of the fall in stock prices? Answer, cooperation between Wall Street and the government to rig the financial markets. Severe problems usually have very simple causes.
Economics In The Modern Arena
Among the economists whom I am at odds with are college professors and government economists. Among those is the always wrong Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. How it is that such smart people can be wrong day after day and year after year? One problem is that graduate level economics courses are economics in name only. What is really studied at these levels is actually accounting and has nothing to do with economics. Students leave college convinced that one number causes another, then go out into the real world and stumble all over themselves. Firm is the belief that if it is taught by a credentialed professor with a 165 IQ it is the gospel.
The economics taught in school applies perfectly to the fantasy system that is assumed to exist in the U.S.A. However the fantasy system leaves out important ingredients and further, has mutated and doesn’t even exist. In the real world economic decisions are not made in the way they are assumed to be made.
Conventional economic thought assumes that decisions, both private and public are made in keeping with intellect. In the real world instinctive impulses drive most political decisions and contribute greatly to economic decisions. Leaders in government are even more controlled by instinctive drives than is the general population. People have an instinctive drive to serve a master and a bias toward giving government a significant role in allocating resources. Individuals are not capable of behaving in the ways necessary for a market economy to function efficiently. I am nothing close to an expert on human instinct but just recognizing that it is a constant influence, gives me a real edge in figuring out where the economy is headed. All of the esteemed who are oblivious to the relevance of instinctive behavior in economics are completely limited.
Today the public sector accounts for a huge portion economic activity. There is a huge misunderstanding concerning why government has grown so large. Of course, because of instinctive biases, growth of government is always hard to contain but there is more. After a long time there are dynamics in a democratic system that no one anticipated. Democracy provides a stage on which the 5% or so of the population with insatiable thirsts for power can compete. In the old days a person had to be born into royalty to be a king or a queen. Today the power hungry promise to have government do things for you that you can’t do for yourself. Politicians promise to use government to take resources from groups who have no political power and give the resources to constituents who support them. The competition for power is now so intense that you are even being promised things that government cannot do.
These are the types of dynamics that are determining economic outcomes in the modern world. What a person gets with an economics degree is an abridge version of the economic arena where the most significant influences are left out. Ben Bernanke can’t do anything right not because he isn’t smart but because he isn’t looking at anything that makes a difference.
