Fantasy of Economic Models

It takes a high I.Q. and lots of hard work to get a PHD in economics, especially from an Ivy League School. Yet a third grader with common sense could debunk almost anything that comes of their mouths in thirty seconds are less.
Economic models and forecasts fail for the same reason chain letters fail. Erroneous assumptions are made about human behavior and character. Also, provisions are never made as to new incentives that will be created and old incentives that will be destroyed. Government is always assumed to make economic decision when it is impossible to for it do so. Does self interest disappear when government takes on a task? Only in the minds of learned economists do government agents work towards the best interests of ordinary citizens.
Fantasy is a major cause of happiness. Some fantasies continue throughout life without interruption. Those that deal with money and survival cause great sadness when they collide with reality and cause misery and poverty. Where there are fantasies about economics, there is always a reckoning day and a sad ending.
There is nothing ignorant about the American Public. Most work to many hours and have too much responsibility to keep up with the numerous ways they lose money due to economic policy. Still, there will be great distress when average folks discover just how much Quantitative Easing has cost them. The price has not yet been paid.
As a political initiative Quantitative easing has been successful in transferring massive wealth from the politically naïve to the politically powerful. As an economic initiative it has destroyed the economy.

00_logo_1

This entry was posted in Daily Comments on by .

About Fantasy Free Economics

James Quillian independent scholar,free market economist,and teacher of natural law. Who is James Quillian? Certainly I am nobody special, Just a tireless academic and deep thinker. Besides that, I have broken the code with respect to economics and political science. Credentials? Nothing you would be impressed with. I am not a household name. It is hard to become famous writing that virtually no one in the country is genuinely not in touch with reality. But, if I did not do that, there would be no point in my broking the broken the code. If you read the blog, it is easy to see that there are just a few charts, no math and no quantitative analysis. That is not by accident. Given what I know, those items are completely useless. I do turn out to be highly adept at applying natural law. Natural law has predominance over any principles the social science comes up. By virtue of understanding natural law, I can debunk, in just a few sentences , any theory that calls for intervention by a government. My taking the time to understand the ins and outs of Keynes General Theory is about like expecting a chemistry student to completely grasp all that the alchemists of the middle ages thought they understood in efforts to turn base metals into goal. Keynesian theory clearly calls for complete objectivity. Government can only make political decisions. Keynesian techniques call for economic decisions. So, why go any further with that? Fantasy Free Economics is in a sense a lot like technical analysis. Technical analysis began with the premise that it was impossible to gain enough information studying fundamentals to gain a trading advantage. Study the behavior of investors instead. Unlike technical analysis, I don't use technical charts. What I understand are the incentives of different people and entities active in the economics arena. For example, there is no such thing as an incentive to serve with life in the aggregate. In the aggregate, only self interest applies. It is routinely assumed otherwise. That is highly unappealing. But, I am sorry. That is the way it is. I can accept that because I am genuinely in touch with reality. Step one in using Fantasy Free Economics is for me to understand just how little I really know. A highly credentialed economist may know 100 times what I do based on the standard dogma. Compare the knowledge each of us has compared to all there is to know and we both look like we know nothing at all. There is always more than we don't know than what we do know. I am humble enough to present myself on that basis. Why? That is the way it is. I am not bad at math. I have taught math. What I understand is when to use it and when to rely on something else. Math is useless in natural law so I don't use it. While others look at numbers, I am busy understanding the forces in nature that makes their numbers what they are. That gives me a clear advantage.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.